publication . Other literature type . Preprint . 2018

Trend analysis by a piecewise linear regression model applied to surface air temperatures in Southeastern Spain (1973–2014)

María Morales; Pablo Campra;
Open Access English
  • Published: 10 Aug 2018
Abstract
<jats:p>Abstract. The magnitude of the trends of environmental and climatic changes is mostly derived from the slopes of the linear trends using ordinary least-square fitting. An alternative flexible fitting model, piecewise regression, has been applied here to surface air temperature records in southeastern Spain for the recent warming period (1973–2014) to gain accuracy in the description of the inner structure of change, dividing the time series into linear segments with different slopes. Breakpoint years, with confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated and separated periods of significant trend change were determined. First, simple linear trends for mean, ma...
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Subjects
free text keywords: Trend analysis, Confidence interval, Simple linear regression, Climatology, Geography, Diurnal temperature variation, Surface air temperature, Magnitude (mathematics), Segmented regression
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