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Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

مقالة مراجعة: الجفاف كسلسلة متصلة: تأثيرات الذاكرة في الأنظمة الهيدرولوجية والبيئية والاجتماعية المترابطة
Authors: A. F. Van Loon; S. Kchouk; A. Matanó; F. Tootoonchi; C. Alvarez-Garreton; K. E. A. Hassaballah; M. Wu; +51 Authors

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Abstract

Abstract. Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately, and then we study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River basin in the USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River basin in northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological, and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we advocate for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase societal and institutional memory. This will help us to better deal with the complex hydrological–ecological–social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation and mitigation.

Countries
Italy, Germany, Netherlands
Keywords

Optimal Operation of Water Resources Systems, Ocean Engineering, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Environmental science, G, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Engineering, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Life Science, GE1-350, Hydro-Economic Models, Environmental resource management, Biology, TD1-1066, QE1-996.5, Global and Planetary Change, Drought, Ecology, Geography, Geology, Environmental sciences, FOS: Biological sciences, Global Drought Monitoring and Assessment, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, drought; memory; ecological system; hydrological system; social system

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    5
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold