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Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state of the art assessment
Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state of the art assessment
Abstract. There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has been obtained through two approaches. The first approach is the detection of change based on observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for non-linear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities are discussed again such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.
- Leibniz Association Germany
- Imperial College London United Kingdom
- ETH Zurich Switzerland
- Helmholtz Centre Potsdam Germany
- University of Queensland Australia
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- Leibniz Association Germany
- Imperial College London United Kingdom
- ETH Zurich Switzerland
- Helmholtz Centre Potsdam Germany
- University of Queensland Australia
- Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien) Austria
- Masaryk University Czech Republic
- Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Information System and Data Center Germany
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Sweden
- University of Barcelona (UB) Spain
- Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna Italy
- Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Poland
- University of Liverpool United Kingdom
- Lithuanian Energy Institute Lithuania
- Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering Imperial College London United Kingdom
- Polish Academy of Sciences Poland
- University of Padua Italy
- Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Czech Republic
- Polish Academy of Learning Poland
- Academy of Science of the Czech Republic Czech Republic
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Scienc ETH Zürich Switzerland
- University of Bath United Kingdom
- University of Barcelona Spain
- Polytechnic University of Turin Italy
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre Sweden
- TU Wien Austria
- ETH Zurich Switzerland
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Germany
- Global Change Research Centre Czech Republic
- Czech Academy of Sciences Czech Republic
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Res Germany
- GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Germany
- Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Adolf Schmidt Observatory for Geomagnetism Germany
- Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres Germany
- Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Spain
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Germany
- Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Germany
Abstract. There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has been obtained through two approaches. The first approach is the detection of change based on observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for non-linear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities are discussed again such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.