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Publication . Preprint . Article . 2022

COVID-19 impact on the international trade

Coquidé, Célestin; Lages, José; Ermann, Leonardo; Shepelyansky, Dima L.;
Open Access
Published: 24 Feb 2022
Publisher: HAL CCSD
Country: France

Using the United Nations Comtrade database, we perform the Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct World Trade Network (WTN) for the years 2018-2020 comprising the emergence of the COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The applied algorithms -- the PageRank, the CheiRank and the reduced Google matrix -- take into account the multiplicity of the WTN links providing new insights on the international trade comparing to the usual import-export analysis. These algorithms establish new rankings and trade balances of countries and products considering every countries on equal grounds, independently of their wealth, and every products on the basis of their relative exchanged volumes. In comparison with the pre-COVID-19 period, significant changes in these metrics occur for the year 2020 highlighting a major rewiring of the international trade flows induced by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We define a new PageRank-CheiRank product trade balance, either export or import oriented, which is significantly perturbed by the pandemic.

Comment: 22 pages, 2 tables, 13 figures, 2 appendices


[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Social and Information Networks (cs.SI), Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph), FOS: Economics and business, FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Physical sciences, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks, Physics - Physics and Society

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