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The Combination of Forecasts

Authors: Robert L. Winkler; Spyros Makridakis;

The Combination of Forecasts

Abstract

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using just a single method. In this paper we provide extensive empirical results showing that combined forecasts obtained through weighted averages can be quite accurate. Five procedures for estimating weights are investigated, and two appear to be superior to the others. These two procedures provide forecasts that are more accurate overall than forecasts from individual methods. Furthermore, they are superior to forecasts found from a simple unweighted average of the same methods.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
263
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
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