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Energy Economics
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4...
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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Intermittently Coupled Electricity Markets

Authors: Erwan Pierre; Lorenz Schneider;

Intermittently Coupled Electricity Markets

Abstract

Auctions of transmission rights between neighbouring countries are becoming increasingly active. In a parallel development, the introduction of market coupling frequently leads to smaller price differences between such countries. Indeed, if two countries are completely coupled, the price of a given hour of electricity will be identical in each country, resulting in a price spread of zero. Clearly, it is important to take this market coupling into account when evaluating transmission rights, as neglecting it would lead to a significant overvaluation of these rights. In order to address this issue, we introduce a general regime-switching mechanism that can be applied to many models in the literature. In particular, we focus on extending the model proposed by Cartea and González-Pedraz (2012). We describe the model estimation procedure in detail, and compare model and market prices of European spread options. We observe a dramatic paradigm shift in our data set at the end of the summer of 2021, and show that this shift has a strong effect on the model parameters. We also see that the reliable pricing and trading of spread options becomes problematic in such a volatile and uncertain market environment.

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Keywords

Regime switching, Electricity markets, Spread options, Market coupling, Interconnectors, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, [SHS.GESTION] Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
hybrid