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Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Mandated Business Closures in a Pandemic

Authors: Jean-Noel Barrot; Maxime Bonelli; Basile Grassi; Julien Sauvagnat;

Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Mandated Business Closures in a Pandemic

Abstract

We estimate the causal effect of state-mandated business closures on economic and health outcomes in the context of the COVID-19 crisis in the US. We first show that business closures lead to a substantial drop in sales, earnings, and market values for affected firms. We then exploit sectoral variations in exposure to these restrictions across areas within the same state, and show that locking down 10% of the labor force is associated with a significant contraction in employment, but allows to reduce COVID-19 weekly infection and death rates by respectively 0.023 and 0.0015 percentage points. The findings translate into 24,000 saved lives for a cost of $115 billion. Finally, our empirical analysis suggests that the cost per life saved associated to business closures could have been significantly reduced if restrictions had targeted areas with intense workplace interactions

Country
France
Subjects by Vocabulary

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Exploit media_common.quotation_subject Context (language use) Health outcomes Pandemic media_common Earnings Causal effect Closing (real estate) Demographic economics Business

Keywords

History, JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles, Polymers and Plastics, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, JEL: I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I18 - Government Policy • Regulation • Public Health, Non-essential businesses, Business and International Management, JEL: H - Public Economics/H.H1 - Structure and Scope of Government, Pandemic, Business closures, JEL: I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I10 - General, [SHS.GESTION]Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration, Covid-19

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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
  • citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    8
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
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