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Choice Over Experiments

Authors: Christopher Adams;

Choice Over Experiments

Abstract

The decision maker is assumed to observe a large number of experiments. The paper presents conditions for the existence of a unique prior over distributions that generate each of the observed samples. The axioms over experiments admit a recursive non-expected utility representation over two-stage lotteries (Klibanoff et al., 2005). This representation allows for preferences that exhibit "ambiguity'' (or "uncertainty'') aversion in a way that is analogous to risk aversion without contravening the time-neutrality axiom of Segal (1990). The paper illustrates the concepts by measuring the relationship between a player's batting average and their salary in Major League Baseball. An increase in a standard measure of uncertainty, the variance of the posterior, is associated with a substantial reduction in player salaries holding other factors fixed.

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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