
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2945877
I examine whether and to what extent tax uncertainty affects a firm's dividend payouts. Based on the argument that tax uncertainty impairs the persistence and predictability of after-tax cash flows, I hypothesize and find that firms with greater tax uncertainty exhibit a lower probability of dividend payouts. The effect of tax uncertainty is stronger in the presence of financial constraints and weaker for firms that distribute dividends to alleviate agency conflicts. Furthermore, I find a negative effect of tax uncertainty on dividend levels, which is moderated by the costs of dividend reductions. These results are economically meaningful as a one standard deviation higher tax uncertainty leads to a 9.9 percentage point lower probability and a $23.6 million reduction in dividend payouts. Taken together, my findings document a real effect of tax avoidance and contribute to the understanding of interactions between uncertain tax avoidance and a firm's financial ecosystem.
JEL G30, G35, H25, H26, H32, WU International Taxation Research Paper Series, Tax Uncertainty, Tax Avoidance, Dividend Payouts, Real Effects, Share Repurchases
JEL G30, G35, H25, H26, H32, WU International Taxation Research Paper Series, Tax Uncertainty, Tax Avoidance, Dividend Payouts, Real Effects, Share Repurchases
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