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América Latina Hoy
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América Latina Hoy
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Article . 2009
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Article . 2009
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Comportamiento electoral y democracia en Nicaragua: 1990-2001

Authors: Anderson, Leslie Elin; Dodd, Lawrence Cloyd;

Comportamiento electoral y democracia en Nicaragua: 1990-2001

Abstract

RESUMEN: En los Estados Unidos y otros países de democracia establecida existen teorías de opción electoral (vote choice) para explicar cómo y por qué los votantes toman decisiones electorales. Éstas nos explican cómo votan los ciudadanos, incluso qué peso dan a las evaluaciones de los candidatos, la económica, y otros factores en sus decisiones de voto. Conforme América Latina se democratiza y algunas naciones en el continente cuentan con varios años de continuidad electoral, surgen preguntas con respecto a la relevancia de teorías electorales desarrolladas en las democracias más antiguas para el análisis del contexto de las nuevas democracias. Particularmente, si ciudadanos de naciones pobres que carecen de las ventajas asociadas a la riqueza económica, educación y cobertura extensiva a través de la televisión, presentan patrones de conducta electoral reconociblemente similares a aquéllos presentes en las democracias más antiguas.Este estudio aplica dos teorías electorales de las democracias antiguas a un contexto donde la democracia es nueva: Nicaragua. Éstas son la teoría de retrospección (Fiorina) y la teoría de prospección (Sniderman, Tetlock, Brody). El artículo muestra que, no obstante su pobreza y el bajo nivel educativo de muchos de sus habitantes, en las tres últimas elecciones los nicaragüenses tenían una capacidad de voto que sigue las dos teorías. Además, los votantes nicaragüenses pensaron no solamente en los candidatos y la economía sino también en el tipo de régimen, una cuestión que nunca se presentaría en Estados Unidos o en otras democracias antiguas. Los menos educados se mostraron tan capaces de utilizar prospección como los más educados. A pesar de la poca antigüedad de la democracia nicaragüense y de la relativa inexperiencia de su población, hemos descubierto una importante evidencia de la utilización de procesos evaluativos retrospectivos y prospectivos en Nicaragua en las elecciones para las cuales contamos con información estadística. La conducta electoral desarrollada para democracias establecidas es también válida para las nuevas democracias, lo cual tiene fuertes implicaciones para la democratización. ?ABSTRACT: Voting studies in the United States and other established democracies offer vote choice theories to explain how and why voters make electoral decisions. These theories explain what weight voters give to evaluations of candidates, the economy and other factors in making their decisions. As Latin America has democratized and some nations of that continent have now had several years of electoral continuity, the question emerges about whether vote choice theories from established democracies have relevance for today’s developing democracies. In particular, it is important to know if citizens from poor nations that lack the advantages associated with wealth, education, and extensive media coverage demonstrate vote choice patterns recognizably similar to those found in older democracies.This study applies two vote choice theories from older democracies to a context where democracy is new: Nicaragua. These are the theory of retrospective voting (Fiorina) and the theory of prospective voting (Sniderman, Tetlock, Brody). The article illustrates that, despite poverty, low educational levels, and lack of extensive media coverage, in the last three elections Nicaraguans demonstrated a vote choice capacity that fits with these two theories. Moreover, Nicarguan voters considered not only the candidates and the economy but also the regime type in making their choice. This last is a question that does not emerge in established democracies. The less educated were as capable of using prospection as the more educated. Despite the newness of the Nicaraguan democracy and the relative electoral inexperience of the population, we have found important statistical evidence of the utility of retrospective and prospective theories. Electoral patterns developed for established democracies are also valid for new democracies, a finding that has important implications for democratization.

Country
Spain
Related Organizations
Keywords

Political science (General), Elecciones, Comportamiento electoral, Teorías electorales, Nicaragua, Teor?as electorales, Democratización, JA1-92, Democratizaci?n

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
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