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Aggregate Social Discount Rate Derived from Individual Discount Rates

Authors: Kenneth F. Reinschmidt;

Aggregate Social Discount Rate Derived from Individual Discount Rates

Abstract

In the economic evaluation of large public-sector projects, an aggregate social discount rate may be used in present worth comparison of alternatives. This paper uses the assumptions that individual discount rates are constant over time and approximately Normally distributed across the affected population, with mean μ and variance σ2, to derive an aggregate discount function that is exponential in form but with time-dependent aggregate discount rate ρ(t) = μ − σ2t/2, where t is the time of occurrence of the cost or benefit. This equation agrees with numerical simulations. If σ2 > 0, then the aggregate discount rate is less than the mean individual discount rate, and use of the time-dependent aggregate discount rate ρ(t) = μ − σ2t/2 instead of the constant discount factor ρ(t) = μ would result in larger discounted present values for public-sector projects for which the benefits lie far in the future. This could mean that public-sector investments that would be rejected under the assumption ρ(t) = μ might be justified using the time-dependent aggregate discount rate ρ(t) = μ − σ2t/2.

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Keywords

Social Discount Rate, Public Sector Investment, Benefit-Cost Analysis

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Average
Top 10%
Average
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