publication . Article . 2016

School closure policies at municipality level for mitigating influenza spread: a model-based evaluation

Ciavarella, Constanze; Fumanelli, Laura; Merler, Stefano; Cattuto, Ciro; Ajelli, Marco;
Open Access English
  • Published: 18 Oct 2016 Journal: BMC Infectious Diseases, volume 16 (eissn: 1471-2334, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: BioMed Central
  • Country: United Kingdom
Abstract
Background Nearly every year Influenza affects most countries worldwide and the risk of a new pandemic is always present. Therefore, influenza is a major concern for public health. School-age individuals are often the most affected group, suggesting that the inclusion in preparedness plans of school closure policies may represent an option for influenza mitigation. However, their applicability remains uncertain and their implementation should carefully be weighed on the basis of cost-benefit considerations. Methods We developed an individual-based model for influenza transmission integrating data on sociodemography and time use of the Italian population, face-to...
Persistent Identifiers
Subjects
Medical Subject Headings: education
free text keywords: Research Article, Influenza, Mitigation, Targeted school closure, Computational modeling, Infectious Diseases, Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, PANDEMIC INFLUENZA, A H1N1, TRANSMISSION, COMMUNITY, DISEASE, VIRUS, Absenteeism, Adolescent, Calibration, Child, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza, Human, Italy, Models, Theoretical, Public Health, Schools, Students, 0605 Microbiology, 1103 Clinical Sciences, 1108 Medical Microbiology, Microbiology, Public health, medicine.medical_specialty, medicine, Epidemiology, Pandemic, Preparedness, Environmental health, Attack rate, H1n1 pandemic, Influenza pandemic, Veterinary medicine, Italian population, business.industry, business
Related Organizations
Funded by
EC| CIMPLEX
Project
CIMPLEX
Bringing CItizens, Models and Data together in Participatory, Interactive SociaL EXploratories
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 641191
  • Funding stream: H2020 | RIA
Validated by funder
Communities
Science and Innovation Policy Studies
FET H2020FET PROACT: Global Systems Science (GSS)
FET H2020FET PROACT: Bringing CItizens, Models and Data together in Participatory, Interactive SociaL EXploratories
39 references, page 1 of 3

1. Chowell G, Echevarría-Zuno S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Tamerius J, Miller MA, et al. Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico. PLoS Med. 2011;8(5), e1000436.

2. Baguelin M, Flasche S, Camacho A, Demiris N, Miller E, Edmunds WJ. Assessing optimal target populations for influenza vaccination programmes: an evidence synthesis and modelling study. PLoS Med. 2013;10(10), e1001527.

3. Mossong J, Hens N, Jit M, Beutels P, Auranen K, Mikolajczyk R, et al. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 2008;5(3), e74.

4. Fumanelli L, Ajelli M, Manfredi P, Vespignani A, Merler S. Inferring the structure of social contacts from demographic data in the analysis of infectious diseases spread. PLoS Comput Biol. 2012;8(9), e1002673.

5. Chao DL, Elizabeth Halloran M, Longini Jr IM. School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreaks in the United States. J Infect Dis. 2010;202(6):877-80.

6. Merler S, Ajelli M, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling. PLoS Comput Biol. 2011;7(9), e1002205.

7. Earn DJD. Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada. Ann Intern Med. 2012;156(3):173.

8. Huang KE, Lipsitch M, Shaman J, Goldstein E. The US 2009 A(H1N1) influenza epidemic: quantifying the impact of school openings on the reproductive number. Epidemiol. 2014;25(2):203-6.

9. Kawaguchi R, Miyazono M, Noda T, Takayama Y, Sasai Y, Iso H. Influenza (H1N1) 2009 outbreak and school closure, Osaka prefecture, Japan. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009;15(10):1685.

10. Wu JT, Cowling BJ, Lau EHY, Ip DKM, Ho L-M, Tsang T, et al. School closure and mitigation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010;16(3):538-41.

11. Hsueh P-R, Lee P-I, Chiu AW-H, Yen M-Y. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccination and class suspensions after outbreaks, Taipei City, Taiwan. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010;16(8):1309-11.

12. Egger JR, Konty KJ, Wilson E, Karpati A, Matte T, Weiss D, et al. The effect of school dismissal on rates of influenza-like illness in New York City schools during the spring 2009 novel H1N1 outbreak. J Sch Health. 2012;82(3):123-30.

13. Copeland DL, Basurto-Davila R, Chung W, Kurian A, Fishbein DB, Szymanowski P, et al. Effectiveness of a school district closure for pandemic influenza A (H1N1) on acute respiratory illnesses in the community: a natural experiment. Clin Infect Dis. 2013;56(4):509-16.

14. Cauchemez S, Van Kerkhove MD, Archer BN, Cetron M, Cowling BJ, Grove P, et al. School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences. BMC Infect Dis. 2014;14(1):207.

15. Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare, Russian Federa- tion. Recommendations for measures to prevent spreading of influenza and acute respiratory infections on the territory of Perm region. 2015. http://59.rospotrebnadzor.ru/c/document_library/get_ file?uuid=e9eef599-a75b-410d-99d2-7e7fb801f603&groupId=10156 (In Russian) Accessed 3 Oct 2016.

39 references, page 1 of 3
Abstract
Background Nearly every year Influenza affects most countries worldwide and the risk of a new pandemic is always present. Therefore, influenza is a major concern for public health. School-age individuals are often the most affected group, suggesting that the inclusion in preparedness plans of school closure policies may represent an option for influenza mitigation. However, their applicability remains uncertain and their implementation should carefully be weighed on the basis of cost-benefit considerations. Methods We developed an individual-based model for influenza transmission integrating data on sociodemography and time use of the Italian population, face-to...
Persistent Identifiers
Subjects
Medical Subject Headings: education
free text keywords: Research Article, Influenza, Mitigation, Targeted school closure, Computational modeling, Infectious Diseases, Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, PANDEMIC INFLUENZA, A H1N1, TRANSMISSION, COMMUNITY, DISEASE, VIRUS, Absenteeism, Adolescent, Calibration, Child, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza, Human, Italy, Models, Theoretical, Public Health, Schools, Students, 0605 Microbiology, 1103 Clinical Sciences, 1108 Medical Microbiology, Microbiology, Public health, medicine.medical_specialty, medicine, Epidemiology, Pandemic, Preparedness, Environmental health, Attack rate, H1n1 pandemic, Influenza pandemic, Veterinary medicine, Italian population, business.industry, business
Related Organizations
Funded by
EC| CIMPLEX
Project
CIMPLEX
Bringing CItizens, Models and Data together in Participatory, Interactive SociaL EXploratories
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 641191
  • Funding stream: H2020 | RIA
Validated by funder
Communities
Science and Innovation Policy Studies
FET H2020FET PROACT: Global Systems Science (GSS)
FET H2020FET PROACT: Bringing CItizens, Models and Data together in Participatory, Interactive SociaL EXploratories
39 references, page 1 of 3

1. Chowell G, Echevarría-Zuno S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Tamerius J, Miller MA, et al. Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico. PLoS Med. 2011;8(5), e1000436.

2. Baguelin M, Flasche S, Camacho A, Demiris N, Miller E, Edmunds WJ. Assessing optimal target populations for influenza vaccination programmes: an evidence synthesis and modelling study. PLoS Med. 2013;10(10), e1001527.

3. Mossong J, Hens N, Jit M, Beutels P, Auranen K, Mikolajczyk R, et al. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 2008;5(3), e74.

4. Fumanelli L, Ajelli M, Manfredi P, Vespignani A, Merler S. Inferring the structure of social contacts from demographic data in the analysis of infectious diseases spread. PLoS Comput Biol. 2012;8(9), e1002673.

5. Chao DL, Elizabeth Halloran M, Longini Jr IM. School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreaks in the United States. J Infect Dis. 2010;202(6):877-80.

6. Merler S, Ajelli M, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling. PLoS Comput Biol. 2011;7(9), e1002205.

7. Earn DJD. Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada. Ann Intern Med. 2012;156(3):173.

8. Huang KE, Lipsitch M, Shaman J, Goldstein E. The US 2009 A(H1N1) influenza epidemic: quantifying the impact of school openings on the reproductive number. Epidemiol. 2014;25(2):203-6.

9. Kawaguchi R, Miyazono M, Noda T, Takayama Y, Sasai Y, Iso H. Influenza (H1N1) 2009 outbreak and school closure, Osaka prefecture, Japan. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009;15(10):1685.

10. Wu JT, Cowling BJ, Lau EHY, Ip DKM, Ho L-M, Tsang T, et al. School closure and mitigation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010;16(3):538-41.

11. Hsueh P-R, Lee P-I, Chiu AW-H, Yen M-Y. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccination and class suspensions after outbreaks, Taipei City, Taiwan. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010;16(8):1309-11.

12. Egger JR, Konty KJ, Wilson E, Karpati A, Matte T, Weiss D, et al. The effect of school dismissal on rates of influenza-like illness in New York City schools during the spring 2009 novel H1N1 outbreak. J Sch Health. 2012;82(3):123-30.

13. Copeland DL, Basurto-Davila R, Chung W, Kurian A, Fishbein DB, Szymanowski P, et al. Effectiveness of a school district closure for pandemic influenza A (H1N1) on acute respiratory illnesses in the community: a natural experiment. Clin Infect Dis. 2013;56(4):509-16.

14. Cauchemez S, Van Kerkhove MD, Archer BN, Cetron M, Cowling BJ, Grove P, et al. School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences. BMC Infect Dis. 2014;14(1):207.

15. Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare, Russian Federa- tion. Recommendations for measures to prevent spreading of influenza and acute respiratory infections on the territory of Perm region. 2015. http://59.rospotrebnadzor.ru/c/document_library/get_ file?uuid=e9eef599-a75b-410d-99d2-7e7fb801f603&groupId=10156 (In Russian) Accessed 3 Oct 2016.

39 references, page 1 of 3
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