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Harvard Data Science Review
Article . 2024
Data sources: DOAJ
https://doi.org/10.1162/99608f...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2023
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Data Science at the Singularity

Authors: David Donoho;

Data Science at the Singularity

Abstract

A purported `AI Singularity' has been in the public eye recently. Mass media and US national political attention focused on `AI Doom' narratives hawked by social media influencers. The European Commission is announcing initiatives to forestall `AI Extinction'. In my opinion, `AI Singularity' is the wrong narrative for what's happening now; recent happenings signal something else entirely. Something fundamental to computation-based research really changed in the last ten years. In certain fields, progress is dramatically more rapid than previously, as the fields undergo a transition to frictionless reproducibility (FR). This transition markedly changes the rate of spread of ideas and practices, affects mindsets, and erases memories of much that came before. The emergence of frictionless reproducibility follows from the maturation of 3 data science principles in the last decade. Those principles involve data sharing, code sharing, and competitive challenges, however implemented in the particularly strong form of frictionless open services. Empirical Machine Learning (EML) is todays leading adherent field, and its consequent rapid changes are responsible for the AI progress we see. Still, other fields can and do benefit when they adhere to the same principles. Many rapid changes from this maturation are misidentified. The advent of FR in EML generates a steady flow of innovations; this flow stimulates outsider intuitions that there's an emergent superpower somewhere in AI. This opens the way for PR to push worrying narratives: not only `AI Extinction', but also the supposed monopoly of big tech on AI research. The helpful narrative observes that the superpower of EML is adherence to frictionless reproducibility practices; these practices are responsible for the striking progress in AI that we see everywhere.

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Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Statistics - Other Statistics, Electronic computers. Computer science, Other Statistics (stat.OT), QA75.5-76.95

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold