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Journal of money credit and banking
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp91...
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
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Indeterminacy and Forecastability

Authors: Fujiwara, Ippei; Hirose, Yasuo;

Indeterminacy and Forecastability

Abstract

Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium indeterminacy in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We first analytically show that a model under indeterminacy exhibits richer dynamics that can improve forecastability. Then, using a sticky‐price DSGE model, we numerically demonstrate that indeterminacy arising from passive monetary policy generates persistent dynamics that lead to superior forecastability. We also point out the possibility that forecastability under indeterminacy deteriorates when the degree of uncertainty about sunspot fluctuations is large.

Country
Australia
Related Organizations
Keywords

Forecasting, Indeterminacy, Monetary policy, jel: jel:E17, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C62

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    9
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
bronze