publication . Article . 2020

A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic

Fabio Della Rossa; Davide Salzano; Anna Di Meglio; Francesco De Lellis; Marco Coraggio; Carmela Calabrese; Agostino Guarino; Ricardo Cardona-Rivera; Pietro De Lellis; Davide Liuzza; ...
Open Access
  • Published: 09 Oct 2020 Journal: Nature Communications, volume 11 (eissn: 2041-1723, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Abstract
The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules. Previous modelling studies at the national level overlooked the fact that Italy is divided into administrative regions which can independently oversee their own share of the Italian National Health Service. Here, we show that heterogeneity between regions is essential to understand the spread of the epidemic and to design effective strategies to control the disease. We model Italy as a network of regions and parameterize the model of each region on real data spanning over two months from the initial outbreak. We confirm the effectiveness at the regio...
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Subjects
free text keywords: General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, General Physics and Astronomy, General Chemistry, Network model, Healthcare system, Pandemic, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), National level, Psychological intervention, Business, National health service, Environmental planning, 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
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