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Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Article . 2000 . Peer-reviewed
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Seismic monitoring and modeling of an active volcano for prediction

Authors: Aki, Keiiti; Ferrazzini, Valérie;

Seismic monitoring and modeling of an active volcano for prediction

Abstract

We describe seismic monitoring and modeling of an active volcano for the purpose of predicting the magma transport process in real time. We selected the Piton de la Fournaise, which has been monitored by an observatory since the early 1980s, and is active, with 28 eruptions from 1980 until August 1992. It erupted on March 9, 1998, after an unusually long quiet period. The eruption lasted until September 21, 1998. Before the March eruption, we completed the initial construction of a model of a magma system based primarily on long‐period (LP) events and coda localization. We found that LP events are associated with the lateral movement of magma to the rift zone and not with the vertical movement to the summit. We also found that the source of 2 Hz LP events is located below that of 1 Hz LP events. The coda localization is a newly discovered phenomenon that helped to locate a magma body. This model was used for interpreting the incoming information from the precursory seismic crisis and the eruption tremor during the 6 months of the eruption. The simultaneous monitoring and modeling of an active volcano led us to a quantitative simulation of the eruption process, computing excess pressure and flow rate in a system of reservoirs connected by channels.

Country
France
Keywords

[SDU] Sciences of the Universe [physics], Volcanology: Magma migration, Seismology: Volcano seismology (8419), Volcanology: Eruption mechanisms, Volcanology: Eruption monitoring (7280)

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    120
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
120
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze