Abstract A variant of the h-index, named the stochastic h-index, is proposed. This new index is obtained by adding to the h-index the probability, under a specific stochastic model, that the h-index will increase by one or more within a given time interval. The stochastic h-index thus extends the h-index to the real line and has a direct interpretation as the distance to the next higher index value. We show how the stochastic h-index can be evaluated and compare it with other variants of the h-index which purportedly indicate the distance to a higher h-index.