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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Revista de la Real A...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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Are volatility indices in international stock markets forward looking?

Authors: María Teresa Solís González; Alfonso Novales;

Are volatility indices in international stock markets forward looking?

Abstract

We analyze the information content in volatility indices of international stock markets regarding current and future market conditions. We find strong negative relationships between changes in volatility indices and current market returns, as well as Granger causality running in both directions. Unfortunately, these correlations cannot be exploited, at least using linear models, to successfully forecast future realized volatility or future returns over long time horizons. Forecasts of future realized volatility obtained from volatility indices are as good as those obtained from historical volatility, but not good enough to be used for risk management. Volatility indices seem to reflect much better current market’s sentiment than any sensible expectation about future market conditions.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
16
Average
Average
Top 10%
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