publication . Article . Other literature type . 2018

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

Sarah E. Minson; Thomas C. Hanks; Men-Andrin Meier; Annemarie S. Baltay; Elizabeth S. Cochran;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Mar 2018
  • Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
  • Country: United States
Abstract
The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. Howeve...
Subjects
ACM Computing Classification System: ComputerApplications_COMPUTERSINOTHERSYSTEMS
free text keywords: Research Article, Research Articles, SciAdv r-articles, Geophysics, Strong ground motion, Minimum time, Earthquake magnitude, Warning system, Ground motion, Geodesy, Ground shaking
40 references, page 1 of 3

1 Wu S., Beck J. L., Heaton T. H., ePAD: Earthquake probability-based automated decision-making framework for earthquake early warning. Comput. Aided Civ. Inf.28, 737–752 (2013).

2 Espinosa-Aranda J. M., Cuellar A., Garcia A., Ibarrola G., Islas R., Maldonado S., Rodriguez F. H., Evolution of the Mexican Seismic Alert System (SASMEX). Seismol. Res. Lett.80, 694–706 (2009).

3 Hoshiba M., Iwakiri K., Hayashimoto N., Shimoyama T., Hirano K., Yamada Y., Ishigaki Y., Kikuta H., Outline of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (M w 9.0): Earthquake early warning and observed seismic intensity. Earth Planets Space 63, 7 (2011). [OpenAIRE]

4 Kohler M. D., Cochran E. S., Given D., Guiwits S., Neuhauser D., Henson I., Hartog R., Bodin P., Kress V., Thompson S., Felizardo C., Brody J., Bhadha R., Schwarz S., Earthquake early warning ShakeAlert system: West coast wide production prototype. Seismol. Res. Lett.89, 99–107 (2017).

5 Fujinawa Y., Noda Y., Japan’s earthquake early warning system on 11 March 2011: Performance, shortcomings, and changes. Earthquake Spectra 29, S341–S368 (2013).

6 Heaton T. H., A model for a seismic computerized alert network. Science 228, 987–990 (1985).17797662 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

7 Meier M.-A., How “good” are real-time ground motion predictions from earthquake early warning systems. J. Geophys. Res.122, 5561–5577 (2017).

8 Allen R. M., Probabilistic warning times for earthquake ground shaking in the San Francisco Bay Area. Seismol. Res. Lett.77, 371–376 (2006).

9 Zollo A., Lancieri M., Nielsen S., Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records. Geophys. Res. Lett.33, L23312 (2006). [OpenAIRE]

10 Kanamori H., Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.33, 195–214 (2005).

11 Rydelek P., Horiuchi S., Earth science: Is earthquake rupture deterministic?Nature 442, E5–E6 (2006).16855543 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

12 Rydelek P., Wu C., Horiuchi S., Comment on “Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records” by Aldo Zollo, Maria Lancieri, Stefan Nielsen. Geophys. Res. Lett.34, L20302 (2007). [OpenAIRE]

13 Yamamoto S., Rydelek P., Horiuchi S., Wu C., Nakamura H., On the estimation of seismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems. Geophys. Res. Lett.35, L07302 (2008). [OpenAIRE]

14 Sato T., Kanamori H., Beginning of earthquakes modeled with the Griffith’s fracture criterion. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.89, 80–93 (1999). [OpenAIRE]

15 Mori J., Kanamori H., Initial rupture of earthquakes in the 1995 Ridgecrest, California sequence. Geophys. Res. Lett.23, 2437–2440 (1996). [OpenAIRE]

40 references, page 1 of 3
Abstract
The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. Howeve...
Subjects
ACM Computing Classification System: ComputerApplications_COMPUTERSINOTHERSYSTEMS
free text keywords: Research Article, Research Articles, SciAdv r-articles, Geophysics, Strong ground motion, Minimum time, Earthquake magnitude, Warning system, Ground motion, Geodesy, Ground shaking
40 references, page 1 of 3

1 Wu S., Beck J. L., Heaton T. H., ePAD: Earthquake probability-based automated decision-making framework for earthquake early warning. Comput. Aided Civ. Inf.28, 737–752 (2013).

2 Espinosa-Aranda J. M., Cuellar A., Garcia A., Ibarrola G., Islas R., Maldonado S., Rodriguez F. H., Evolution of the Mexican Seismic Alert System (SASMEX). Seismol. Res. Lett.80, 694–706 (2009).

3 Hoshiba M., Iwakiri K., Hayashimoto N., Shimoyama T., Hirano K., Yamada Y., Ishigaki Y., Kikuta H., Outline of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (M w 9.0): Earthquake early warning and observed seismic intensity. Earth Planets Space 63, 7 (2011). [OpenAIRE]

4 Kohler M. D., Cochran E. S., Given D., Guiwits S., Neuhauser D., Henson I., Hartog R., Bodin P., Kress V., Thompson S., Felizardo C., Brody J., Bhadha R., Schwarz S., Earthquake early warning ShakeAlert system: West coast wide production prototype. Seismol. Res. Lett.89, 99–107 (2017).

5 Fujinawa Y., Noda Y., Japan’s earthquake early warning system on 11 March 2011: Performance, shortcomings, and changes. Earthquake Spectra 29, S341–S368 (2013).

6 Heaton T. H., A model for a seismic computerized alert network. Science 228, 987–990 (1985).17797662 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

7 Meier M.-A., How “good” are real-time ground motion predictions from earthquake early warning systems. J. Geophys. Res.122, 5561–5577 (2017).

8 Allen R. M., Probabilistic warning times for earthquake ground shaking in the San Francisco Bay Area. Seismol. Res. Lett.77, 371–376 (2006).

9 Zollo A., Lancieri M., Nielsen S., Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records. Geophys. Res. Lett.33, L23312 (2006). [OpenAIRE]

10 Kanamori H., Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.33, 195–214 (2005).

11 Rydelek P., Horiuchi S., Earth science: Is earthquake rupture deterministic?Nature 442, E5–E6 (2006).16855543 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

12 Rydelek P., Wu C., Horiuchi S., Comment on “Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records” by Aldo Zollo, Maria Lancieri, Stefan Nielsen. Geophys. Res. Lett.34, L20302 (2007). [OpenAIRE]

13 Yamamoto S., Rydelek P., Horiuchi S., Wu C., Nakamura H., On the estimation of seismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems. Geophys. Res. Lett.35, L07302 (2008). [OpenAIRE]

14 Sato T., Kanamori H., Beginning of earthquakes modeled with the Griffith’s fracture criterion. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.89, 80–93 (1999). [OpenAIRE]

15 Mori J., Kanamori H., Initial rupture of earthquakes in the 1995 Ridgecrest, California sequence. Geophys. Res. Lett.23, 2437–2440 (1996). [OpenAIRE]

40 references, page 1 of 3
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