publication . Preprint . 2007

Five year prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison of simple statistical methods

Laepple, Thomas; Jewson, Stephen; Meagher, Jonathan; O'Shay, Adam; Penzer, Jeremy;
Open Access English
  • Published: 15 Jan 2007
Abstract
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall goal, in this study we compare the historical performance of three simple statistical methods for making five-year SST forecasts. We also present SST forecasts for 2006-2010 using these methods and compare them to forecasts made from two structural time series models.
Subjects
free text keywords: Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
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A Harvey and N Shephard. Structural Time Series Models. In Handbook of Statistics Volume 11. Elsevier Science, 1993.

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