publication . Article . Preprint . 2015

visualizing probabilistic proof

Guerra-Pujol, Enrique;
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  • Published: 20 Jun 2015 Journal: SSRN Electronic Journal (eissn: 1556-5068, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Elsevier BV
Abstract
Comment: 37 pages, 7 diagrams
Subjects
arXiv: Computer Science::Hardware Architecture
free text keywords: Bayesian probability, Probabilistic proof, Bayes' theorem, Artificial intelligence, business.industry, business, Computer science, Natural frequency, Statistics - Other Statistics
Related Organizations

E.   Example #5 (Standard Format)..................................................24   F.   Example #6 (Standard Format)..................................................26   G.   Example #7 (Standard Format)..................................................28   H.   An Alternative Visualization of the Bayesian Approach ............31   IV. THE CASE FOR BAYES ..........................................................................32   A.   What Bayes is Not ......................................................................33   B.   A Legal Trial is Just a Test.........................................................34   C.   A Test is Separate from Reality ..................................................35   D.   All Tests are Imperfect ...............................................................36   E.   Why Bayes is Useful: It Puts Tests to the Test ...........................36   V. CONCLUSION .........................................................................................37 1. As quoted in Sharon Bertch McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die. New Haven: Yale University Press (2011).

2. See, e.g., People v. Collins, 438 P.2d 33 (1968); Smith v. Rapid Transit, Inc., 58 N.E.2d 754 (1945).

3. Collins, 438 P.2d at 33.

4. For example, compare Laurence Tribe's critique of probabilistic methods in law with Daniel Shaviro's defense of probabilistic proof. See Laurence H. Tribe, Trial by Mathematics: Precision and Ritual in the Legal Process, 84 HARV. L. REV. 1329 (1971); Daniel Shaviro, Statistical-Probability Evidence and the Appearance of Justice, 103 HARV. L. REV. 530 (1989).

5. For a review of the arguments both for and against probabilistic methods in law, see RICHARD LEMPERT & JOSEPH SANDERS, AN INVITATION TO LAW AND SOCIAL SCIENCE: DESERT, DISPUTES, AND DISTRIBUTION (1986).

27. Nesson, supra note 7, at 1378-79.

28. Brilmayer, supra note 7, at 674.

29. Shaviro, supra note 4, at 530-31 (citations omitted). Shaviro's statement of the blue bus problem also appears in Ronald J. Allen, On the Significance of Batting Averages and Strikeout Totals: A Clarification of the Naked Statistical Evidence Debate, the Meaning of Evidence, and the Requirement of Proof beyond a Reasonable Doubt, 65 TUL. L. REV. 1093, 1097-98 (1991).

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publication . Article . Preprint . 2015

visualizing probabilistic proof

Guerra-Pujol, Enrique;