Uncertain Climate Forecasts From Multimodel Ensembles: When to Use Them and When to Ignore Them

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Jewson, Stephen; Rowlands, Dan;
  • Subject: Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
    arxiv: Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Uncertainty around multimodel ensemble forecasts of changes in future climate reduces the accuracy of those forecasts. For very uncertain forecasts this effect may mean that the forecasts should not be used. We investigate the use of the well-known Bayesian Information ... View more
  • References (4)

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    S Jewson and E Hawkins. Improving Uncertain Climate Forecasts Using a New Minimum Mean Square Error Estimator for the Mean of the Normal Distribution. arXiv:physics/0912.4395, 2009c.

    G Meehl, C Covey, T Delworth, M Latif, B McAvaney, J Mitchell, R Stouffer, and K Taylor. The WCRP CMIP3 Multi-model Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88:1383-1394, 2007.

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