Luck is Hard to Beat: The Difficulty of Sports Prediction

Preprint English OPEN
Aoki, Raquel YS; Assuncao, Renato M; de Melo, Pedro OS Vaz;
(2017)

Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of skill. This indicates the rel... View more
  • References (29)
    29 references, page 1 of 3

    [1] C. Anderson and D. Sally. 2013. The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know about Football is Wrong. Penguin Books, Limited, UK.

    [2] E Ben-Naim, NW Hengartner, S Redner, and F Vazquez. 2013. Randomness in competitions. Journal of Statistical Physics 151, 3-4 (2013), 458-474.

    [3] E Ben-Naim, NW, F Vazquez, and S Redner. 2007. What is the most Competitive Sport? Journal of the Korean Physics Society 50 (2007), 124-126.

    [4] Eli Ben-Naim, Federico Vazquez, and Sidney Redner. 2006. Parity and predictability of competitions. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 2, 4 (2006), 1-12.

    [5] Joel Brooks, Matthew Kerr, and John Guttag. 2016. Developing a Data-Driven Player Ranking in Soccer Using Predictive Model Weights. In Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. ACM, USA, 49-55.

    [6] William Chan, Pascal Courty, and Li Hao. 2009. Suspense: Dynamic Incentives in Sports Contests. The Economic Journal 119, 534 (2009), 24-46.

    [7] Shuo Chen and Thorsten Joachims. 2016. Predicting matchups and preferences in context. In Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. ACM, ACM, USA, 775-784.

    [8] Wei-Sen Chen and Yin-Kuan Du. 2009. Using neural networks and data mining techniques for the nancial distress prediction model. Expert Systems with Applications 36, 2 (2009), 4075-4086.

    [9] Raphael Chetrite, Roland Diel, and Matthieu Lerasle. 2015. The number of potential winners in Bradley-Terry model in random environment. arXiv preprint arXiv:1509.07265 - (2015).

    [10] Rodney Fort and Joel Maxcy. 2003. “Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues: An Introduction”. Journal of Sports Economics 4, 2 (2003), 154-160.

  • Metrics
Share - Bookmark