publication . Other literature type . 2015

Forecasting Croatian inbound tourism demand

Tica, Josip; Kožić, Ivan;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Jan 2015 Journal: Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, volume 28, issue 1 (issn: 1331-677X, eissn: 1848-9664, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Department of Economics and Tourism 'Dr. Mijo Mirkovic'
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to present a forecasting model for the overnight stays of foreign tourists in Croatia. Tourism is one of the most important parts of the Croatian economy. It is particularly important in the context of the services sector. Regular and significant surpluses and the consumption of foreign guests are an important element of budget revenues, especially VAT. The ability to forecast the development of inbound tourism demand in a timely manner is crucial for both business decisions and policy-making. We combine the Granger causality test for identifying leading indicators with a grid search of the weights used to construct a composite indicator...
Subjects
free text keywords: tourism demand; forecasting; leading indicators; composite indicator; Granger causality; weights optimisation
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