publication . Conference object . 2016

Wind-Based Robust Trajectory Optimization using Meteorological Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts

González Arribas, Daniel; Soler Arnedo, Manuel Fernando; Sanjurjo Rivo, Manuel;
Open Access English
  • Published: 08 Nov 2016
  • Publisher: Eurocontrol
  • Country: Spain
Abstract
A major challenge for Trajectory-Based Operations is the existence of significant uncertainties in the models and systems required for trajectory prediction. In particular, weather uncertainty has been acknowledged as one of the most (if not the most) relevant ones. In the present paper we present preliminary results on robust trajectory planning at the pre-tactical level. The main goal is to plan trajectories that are efficient, yet predictable. State-of-the-art forecasts from Ensemble Prediction Systems are used as input data for the wind field, which we assume to be the unique source of uncertainty. We develop an ad-hoc optimal control methodology to solve tr...
Subjects
free text keywords: Aeronáutica
Related Organizations
Funded by
EC| TBO-MET
Project
TBO-MET
Meteorological Uncertainty Management for Trajectory Based Operations
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 699294
  • Funding stream: H2020 | SESAR-RIA
44 references, page 1 of 3

[1] E. Casado, C. Goodchild, and M. Vilaplana, “Sensitivity of trajectory prediction accuracy to aircraft performance uncertainty,” in Proc. of the AIAA INFOTECH@AEROSPACE (I@A) CONFERENCE.

[2] R. Vazquez and D. Rivas, “Propagation of initial mass uncertainty in aircraft cruise flight,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 415-429, 2013.

[3] E. Casado, M. Vilaplana, and C. Goodchild, “Sensitivity of continuous climb departure predictions to aircraft intent uncertainties,” in 3th International Conference on Application and Theory of Automation in Command and Control Systems, 2013.

[4] J. P. Hacker, E. S. Krayenhoff, and R. B. Stull, “Ensemble experiments on numerical weather prediction error and uncertainty for a north pacific forecast failure,” Weather and forecasting, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 12-31, 2003. [OpenAIRE]

[5] A. Arribas, K. Robertson, and K. Mylne, “Test of a poor man's ensemble prediction system for short-range probability forecasting,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 133, no. 7, pp. 1825-1839, 2005.

[6] C. Lu, H. Yuan, B. E. Schwartz, and S. G. Benjamin, “Short-range numerical weather prediction using time-lagged ensembles,” Weather and Forecasting, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 580-595, 2007.

[7] P. Bauer, A. Thorpe, and G. Brunet, “The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction,” Nature, vol. 525, no. 7567, pp. 47-55, 2015.

[8] J. Cheung, J.-L. Brenguier, J. Heijstek, A. Marsman, and H. Wells, “Sensitivity of flight durations to uncertainties in numerical weather prediction,” SESAR Innovation Days, 2014.

[9] J. Cheung, A. Hally, J. Heijstek, A. Marsman, and J.-L. Brenguier, “Recommendations on trajectory selection in flight planning based on weather uncertainty.”

[10] D. Gonzalez-Arribas, M. Soler, and M. Sanjurjo-Rivo, “Wind-optimal cruise trajectories using pseudospectral methods and ensemble probabilistic forecasts,” in 5th International Conference on Application and Theory of Automation in Command and Control Systems. HALA, 2015.

[11] R. Va´zquez and D. Rivas, “Analysis of the effect of uncertain average winds on cruise fuel load,” in SESAR Innovation Days.

[12] M. R. Jardin and A. E. Bryson, “Neighboring optimal aircraft guidance in winds,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 710-715, 2001.

[13] --, “Methods for computing minimum-time paths in strong winds,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 165- 171, 2012.

[14] B. Sridhar, H. Ng, and N. Chen, “Aircraft trajectory optimization and contrails avoidance in the presence of winds,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, vol. 34, no. 5, pp. 1577-1584, 2011.

[15] A. Marchidan and E. Bakolas, “Numerical techniques for minimum-time routing on sphere with realistic winds,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, pp. 1-6, 2015. [OpenAIRE]

44 references, page 1 of 3
Abstract
A major challenge for Trajectory-Based Operations is the existence of significant uncertainties in the models and systems required for trajectory prediction. In particular, weather uncertainty has been acknowledged as one of the most (if not the most) relevant ones. In the present paper we present preliminary results on robust trajectory planning at the pre-tactical level. The main goal is to plan trajectories that are efficient, yet predictable. State-of-the-art forecasts from Ensemble Prediction Systems are used as input data for the wind field, which we assume to be the unique source of uncertainty. We develop an ad-hoc optimal control methodology to solve tr...
Subjects
free text keywords: Aeronáutica
Related Organizations
Funded by
EC| TBO-MET
Project
TBO-MET
Meteorological Uncertainty Management for Trajectory Based Operations
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 699294
  • Funding stream: H2020 | SESAR-RIA
44 references, page 1 of 3

[1] E. Casado, C. Goodchild, and M. Vilaplana, “Sensitivity of trajectory prediction accuracy to aircraft performance uncertainty,” in Proc. of the AIAA INFOTECH@AEROSPACE (I@A) CONFERENCE.

[2] R. Vazquez and D. Rivas, “Propagation of initial mass uncertainty in aircraft cruise flight,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 415-429, 2013.

[3] E. Casado, M. Vilaplana, and C. Goodchild, “Sensitivity of continuous climb departure predictions to aircraft intent uncertainties,” in 3th International Conference on Application and Theory of Automation in Command and Control Systems, 2013.

[4] J. P. Hacker, E. S. Krayenhoff, and R. B. Stull, “Ensemble experiments on numerical weather prediction error and uncertainty for a north pacific forecast failure,” Weather and forecasting, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 12-31, 2003. [OpenAIRE]

[5] A. Arribas, K. Robertson, and K. Mylne, “Test of a poor man's ensemble prediction system for short-range probability forecasting,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 133, no. 7, pp. 1825-1839, 2005.

[6] C. Lu, H. Yuan, B. E. Schwartz, and S. G. Benjamin, “Short-range numerical weather prediction using time-lagged ensembles,” Weather and Forecasting, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 580-595, 2007.

[7] P. Bauer, A. Thorpe, and G. Brunet, “The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction,” Nature, vol. 525, no. 7567, pp. 47-55, 2015.

[8] J. Cheung, J.-L. Brenguier, J. Heijstek, A. Marsman, and H. Wells, “Sensitivity of flight durations to uncertainties in numerical weather prediction,” SESAR Innovation Days, 2014.

[9] J. Cheung, A. Hally, J. Heijstek, A. Marsman, and J.-L. Brenguier, “Recommendations on trajectory selection in flight planning based on weather uncertainty.”

[10] D. Gonzalez-Arribas, M. Soler, and M. Sanjurjo-Rivo, “Wind-optimal cruise trajectories using pseudospectral methods and ensemble probabilistic forecasts,” in 5th International Conference on Application and Theory of Automation in Command and Control Systems. HALA, 2015.

[11] R. Va´zquez and D. Rivas, “Analysis of the effect of uncertain average winds on cruise fuel load,” in SESAR Innovation Days.

[12] M. R. Jardin and A. E. Bryson, “Neighboring optimal aircraft guidance in winds,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 710-715, 2001.

[13] --, “Methods for computing minimum-time paths in strong winds,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 165- 171, 2012.

[14] B. Sridhar, H. Ng, and N. Chen, “Aircraft trajectory optimization and contrails avoidance in the presence of winds,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, vol. 34, no. 5, pp. 1577-1584, 2011.

[15] A. Marchidan and E. Bakolas, “Numerical techniques for minimum-time routing on sphere with realistic winds,” Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, pp. 1-6, 2015. [OpenAIRE]

44 references, page 1 of 3
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