Inter-temporal variation in the travel time and travel cost parameters of transport models

Preprint OPEN
Börjesson, Maria (2012)
  • Subject: Travel demand forecasting; Inter-temporal income elasticity; Marginal disutility of time; Marginal disutility of cost; Time parameter; Cost parameter; Stated preference; Replicated survey
    • jel: jel:C25 | jel:J22 | jel:R42 | jel:D61 | jel:R41

The parameters for travel time and travel cost are central in travel demand forecasting models. Since valuation of infrastructure investments requires prediction of travel demand for future evaluation years, inter-temporal variation of the travel time and travel cost parameters is a key issue in forecasting. Using two identical stated choice experiments conducted among Swedish drivers with an interval of 13 years, 1994 and 2007, this paper estimates the inter-temporal variation in travel time and cost parameters. It is found that the travel time parameter has remained constant over time but that the travel cost parameter has declined in real terms. The trend decline in the cost parameter can be entirely explained by higher average income level in the 2007 sample compared to the 1994 sample. The results support the recommendation to keep the travel time parameter constant over time in forecast models but to deflate the travel cost parameter according to forecasts of income increases among travellers and the relevant income elasticity of the cost parameter. Evidence from this study further suggests that the inter-temporal and the cross-sectional income elasticity of the cost parameter are equal. The average elasticity is found to be -0.8- -0.9 in the present sample of drivers, and the elasticity is found to increases with real income level, both in the cross-section and over time.
  • References (48)
    48 references, page 1 of 5

    Abrantes, P.A.L. and Wardman, M.R., 2011. Meta-analysis of UK values of travel time: An update. Transportation Research Part A 45(1), 1-17.

    Algers, S., Lindqvist-Dillén, J., Widlert, S., 1995. The National Swedish Value of Time Study. Paper presented at the PTRC European Transportation Forum in Warwick 1995. Proceedings of seminar F, P393 ISBN 0-86050-283-X.

    Amador, F.J., González, R.M. and Ortúzar, J.D., 2005. Preference heterogeneity and willingness to pay for travel time savings. Transportation 32(6), 627-647.

    Axhausen, K.W., Hess, S., Konigb, A., Abayc, G., Bates, J,J. and Bierlaire, M., 2008. Income and distance elasticities of values oftravel time savings: New Swiss results. Transport Policy 15, 173-185.

    Bateman, I., Munro, A., Rhodes, B., Starmer, C., Sugden, R., 1997. A test of the theory of reference-dependent preferences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 112 (2), 479-505.

    Badoe, D. and Miller. E., 1995. Analysis of the Temporal Transferability of Disaggregate Work Trip Mode Choice Models. Transportation Research Record, 1493, pp. 1-11.

    Bates, J. and Whelan, G., 2001. Size and sign of Time Savings. ITS Working Paper no. 561.

    Becker, G. S., 1965. A Theory of the Allocation of Time. The Economic Journal, 75(299), 493- 517.

    Beser, M., and Algers, S., 2002. SAMPERS - The New Swedish National Travel Demand Forecasting Tool. In: Lundqvist, L., Mattsson, L.-G. (Eds.), National transport models: recent developments and prospects. Springer.

    Bierlaire, M., 2003. BIOGEME: A free package for the estimation of discrete choice models . Proceedings of the 3rd Swiss Transportation Research Conference, Ascona, Switzerland.

  • Metrics
    No metrics available
Share - Bookmark