publication . Preprint . 2010

Will Exports Prevail over Austerity?

Vasily Astrov; Vladimir Gligorov; Peter Havlik; Mario Holzner; Gabor Hunya; Kazimierz Laski; Sebastian Leitner; Zdenek Lukas; Anton Mihailov; Olga Pindyuk; ...
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Jul 2010
Abstract
The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European NMS and lower in the SEE countries and the Baltics. Growth is currently driven mostly by exports which should outweigh the dampening effects of the austerity measures. Whether the countries will actually benefit from the global trade recovery depends on their exchange rate regime and the strength of their industrial sector. Investment and household consumption will recover in th...
Subjects
free text keywords: Central and East European new EU member states, Southeast Europe, future EU member states, Balkans, former Soviet Union, China, Turkey, economic forecasts, employment, competitiveness, exchange rates, inflation, foreign trade, fiscal policy, jel:G01, jel:G18, jel:O52, jel:O57, jel:P24, jel:P27, jel:P33, jel:P52

Producer price index, 2000=100 Consumer price index, 2000=100 GDP deflator, 2000=100 Exchange rate (ER), NC/EUR ER, nominal 2000=100 Real ER (CPI-based), 2000=100 Real ER (PPI-based), 2000=100 PPP, NC/EUR Price level, EU27 = 100 Average monthly gross wages, NC Average monthly gross wages, EUR (ER) Average monthly gross wages, EUR (PPP) GDP nominal, NC bn Employed persons - LFS, th., average GDP per employed person, NC GDP per empl. person, NC at 2000 pr. Unit labour costs, NC, 2000=100 Unit labour costs, ER adj., 2000=100 Unit labour costs, PPP adj., Austria=100 Latvia

Producer price index, 2000=100 Consumer price index, 2000=100 GDP deflator, 2000=100 Exchange rate (ER), NC/EUR ER, nominal, 2000=100 Real ER (CPI-based), 2000=100 Real ER (PPI-based), 2000=100 PPP, NC/EUR Price level, EU27 = 100 Average monthly gross wages, NC Average monthly gross wages, EUR (ER) Average monthly gross wages, EUR (PPP) GDP nominal, NC mn Employed persons - LFS, th., average GDP per employed person, NC GDP per empl. person, NC at 2000 pr. Unit labour costs, NC, 2000=100 Unit labour costs, ER adj., 2000=100 Unit labour costs, PPP adj., Austria=100 Lithuania

Producer price index, 2000=100 Consumer price index, 2000=100 GDP deflator, 2000=100 Exchange rate (ER), NC/EUR ER, nominal, 2000=100 Real ER (CPI-based), 2000=100 Real ER (PPI-based), 2000=100 PPP, NC/EUR Price level, EU27 = 100 Average monthly gross wages, NC Average monthly gross wages, EUR (ER) Average monthly gross wages, EUR (PPP) GDP nominal, NC mn Employed persons - LFS, th., average GDP per employed person, NC GDP per empl. person, NC at 2000 pr. Unit labour costs, NC, 2000=100 Unit labour costs, ER adj., 2000=100 Unit labour costs, PPP adj., Austria=100 Slovenia

Producer price index, 2000=100 Consumer price index, 2000=100 GDP deflator, 2000=100 Exchange rate (ER), NC/EUR ER, nominal, 2000=100 Real ER (CPI-based), 2000=100 Real ER (PPI-based), 2000=100 PPP, NC/EUR Price level, EU27 = 100 Average monthly gross wages, NC Average monthly gross wages, EUR (ER) Average monthly gross wages, EUR (PPP) GDP nominal, NC mn Employed persons - LFS, th., average GDP per employed person, NC GDP per empl. person, NC at 2000 pr. Unit labour costs, NC, 2000=100 Unit labour costs, ER adj., 2000=100 Unit labour costs, PPP adj., Austria=100 Croatia

Producer price index, 2000=100 Consumer price index, 2000=100 GDP deflator, 2000=100 Exchange rate (ER), NC/EUR ER, nominal, 2000=100 Real ER (CPI-based), 2000=100 Real ER (PPI-based), 2000=100 PPP, NC/EUR Price level, EU27 = 100 Average monthly gross wages, NC Average monthly gross wages, EUR (ER) Average monthly gross wages, EUR (PPP) GDP nominal, NC mn Employed persons - LFS, th., average GDP per employed person, NC GDP per empl. person, NC at 2000 pr. Unit labour costs, NC, 2000=100 Unit labour costs, ER adj., 2000=100 Unit labour costs, PPP adj., Austria=100 Macedonia

Producer price index, 2000=100 Consumer price index, 2000=100 GDP deflator, 2000=100 Exchange rate (ER), NC/EUR ER, nominal, 2000=100 Real ER (CPI-based), 2000=100 Real ER (PPI-based), 2000=100 PPP, NC/EUR Price level, EU27 = 100 Average monthly gross wages, NC 1) Average monthly gross wages, EUR (ER) Average monthly gross wages, EUR (PPP) GDP nominal, NC mn Employed persons - LFS, th., average GDP per employed person, NC GDP per empl. person, NC at 2000 pr. Unit labour costs, NC, 2000=100 Unit labour costs, ER adj., 2000=100 Unit labour costs, PPP adj., Austria=100

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