publication . Article . Preprint . 2005

GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico

Ebrima A Faal;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 May 2005 Journal: IMF Working Papers, volume 5, page 1 (issn: 1018-5941, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth rates. The results indicate that the most important factor underlying the slowdown in output growth was a decline in trend total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity growth in recent years. Further increases in product...
free text keywords: Forecasting and Simulation, [Potential output;Inflation;Mexico;GDP growth, output gap, tfp, equation, real gdp, growth rates, Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles], Potential output, Economics, Productivity, Output gap, Slowdown, Total factor productivity growth, Total factor productivity, Real gross domestic product, Monetary economics, Inflation, media_common.quotation_subject, media_common
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