publication . Preprint . Article . 2013

Conditional Betas and Investor Uncertainty

Name: Conditional Betas and Investor Uncertainty
Creator: Fernando D. Chague
Keywords: Conditional CAPM, Conditional Betas, Uncertainty

Fernando D. Chague;

Open Access

Published: 16 Apr 2013

Summary
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Abstract

We derive theoretical expressions for market betas from a rational expectation equilibrium model where the representative investor does not observe if the economy is in a recession or an expansion. Market betas in this economy are time-varying and related to investor uncertainty about the state of the economy. The dynamics of betas will also vary across assets according to the assets' cash-flow structure. In a calibration exercise, we show that value and growth firms have cash-flow structures that imply an opposing beta dynamics that goes in the direction of solving the value premium puzzle. During high uncertainty periods, value betas are higher while growth be...

doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2297298

Subjects

Medical Subject Headings: health care economics and organizations

free text keywords: Conditional CAPM, Conditional Betas, Uncertainty, jel:G12, jel:E32, jel:D80, Value premium, Monetary economics, Rational expectations equilibrium, Recession, media_common.quotation_subject, media_common, Economics

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