publication . Preprint . 2014

NAPLAN Scores as Predictors of Access to Higher Education in Victoria

Brendan Houng; Moshe Justman;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Oct 2014
This paper examines the extent to which year-9 performance on the National Assessment Program—Language Arts and Numeracy (NAPLAN) predicts access to higher education as determined by subsequent achievement on year-12 Victoria Certificate of Education (VCE) exams. VCE performance is measured via three binary indicators: achieving an Australian tertiary admission rank (ATAR) above 50 ("ATAR50"), above 70 ("ATAR70"), and above 90 ("ATAR90"); and two continuous indicators: ATAR and the Tertiary Entrance Aggregate (TEA). We find that a four-way classification of year-9 NAPLAN results explains 35% of the variance in ATAR50, 37% in ATAR70 and 26% in ATAR90; and NAPLAN ...
free text keywords: Standardized tests, NAPLAN, ATAR, longitudinal analysis, predicting educational achievement, socio-economic gradient of achievement, school effects, Victoria, Australia, jel:I21, jel:I24, jel:I28
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