publication . Preprint . 2006

Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework

Giuseppe Carone; Cécile Denis; Kieran Mc Morrow; Gilles Mourre; Werner Röger;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Jun 2006
Abstract
This paper presents the results of long run labour productivity and GDP growth rate projections (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States and provides a detailed overview of the forecast methodology used. These projections were undertaken in order to provide an internationally comparable macroeconomic framework against which to assess the potential economic and fiscal effects of ageing populations. The projections presented in this paper, using a common production function methodology for all 25 countries, show the GDP growth rate effects of an assumptions-driven extrapolation of recent trends in employment and labour productivity. These base case project...
Subjects
free text keywords: Productivity; ageing; long-term projections; production function; labour productivity; older workers, labour productivity, GDP projections, ageing populations, public expenditure, pensions, health care, long-term care, unemployment, education, Carone, Denis, Mc Morrow, Mourre, Röger, jel:J1, jel:O47, jel:J21, jel:H55, jel:J26, jel:D24
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publication . Preprint . 2006

Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework

Giuseppe Carone; Cécile Denis; Kieran Mc Morrow; Gilles Mourre; Werner Röger;