East Asian Financial Cycles: Asian vs. Global Financial Crises

Preprint OPEN
Akira Kohsaka; Jun-ichi Shinkai; (2014)
  • Subject: Business cycles, Financial Conditions Index (FCI), Asian Financial Crisis, Global Financial Crisis, East Asia
    • jel: jel:E32 | jel:E42 | jel:E44

We examine the role of financial shocks in business cycles in general and in financial crises in particular in East Asia (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand) since the 1990s. Estimating a Financial Conditions Index, we found that financial shocks explain most of bu... View more
  • References (1)

    A. Indonesia 1997:4-1998:4 5 -6.19 1.24 -2.75 2001:3-2001:4 2 -0.81 0.40 0.67 2003:3-2003:4 2 -0.05 0.03 1.12 2005:1-2006:2 6 -0.50 0.08 1.34 2008:4-2009:2 3 -0.50 0.17 1.13 B. Korea 1997:3-1998:3 5 -3.61 0.72 -0.74 2000:4-2001:4 5 -1.54 0.31 0.94 2002:3-2005:1 11 -1.00 0.09 1.05 2008:2-2009:1 4 -2.42 0.60 -0.01 C. Malaysia 1998:1-1998:4 4 -4.46 1.11 -1.89 2000:4-2001:4 5 -2.13 0.43 0.43 2002:4-2003:1 2 -0.22 0.11 1.58 2004:3-2004:4 2 -0.69 0.35 1.39 2006:2-2006:3 2 -0.02 0.01 1.46 2008:2-2009:1 4 -3.38 0.84 0.34 D. Thailand 1996:3-1998:3 9 -5.24 0.58 -0.84 2000:2-2001:3 6 -0.89 0.15 0.78 2008:2-2009:1 4 -3.38 0.84 -0.22 This table shows the contraction phases (recession) defined as from peak to trough, which was determined by a method in Harding and Pagan (2002).

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