publication . Article . 2003

Estimating and Forecasting Production and Orders in Manufacturing Industry from Business Survey Data: Evidence from Switzerland, 1990-2003

Richard Etter; Michael Graff;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Jan 2003 Journal: Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, volume 139, issue IV December, pages 507-533
A fundamental issue for policy-oriented business cycle research is access to leading - or at least coincident - and reliable indicators of economic activity in manufacturing industry. Therefore, we analyse how the quickly disposable, qualitative information of the business tendency survey conducted by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) is related to the official production and order statistics of Switzerland. Pairs of high cross-correlations were selected for further analyses (Granger causality, pattern of turning points). In the next step, the remaining variables are used as predictors of the official statistics in a bivariate and multivariat...
free text keywords: Coincident and leading indicators; forecasting; manufacturing industry, jel:E37
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