A Structural VAR Approach to Estimating Budget Balance Targets

Preprint OPEN
Robert A Buckle; Kunhong Kim; Julie Tam;
  • Subject: Budget target; Fiscal policy; Fiscal Responsibility Act; Structural VAR; Stochastic Simulation
    • jel: jel:H61 | jel:E62 | jel:C51

The Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994 states that, as a principle of responsible fiscal management, a New Zealand government should ensure total Crown debt is at a prudent level by ensuring total operating expenses do not exceed total operating revenues. In this paper a st... View more
  • References (20)
    20 references, page 1 of 2

    Bernanke, Ben (1986), "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series in Public Policy, Autumn, 49-100.

    Blanchard, Olivier J. (1989), “A traditional explanation of economic fluctuations,” American Economic Review, 79, 1146-1164.

    Blanchard, Olivier J. and Danny Quah (1989), “The dynamic effects of aggregate supply and demand disturbances,” American Economic Review, 79, 655-673.

    Blanchard, Olivier J. and Mark W. Watson (1986), "Are business cycles all alike?", in The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, ed. R. J. Gordon, Chicago, University of Chicago Press,” 123-156.

    Buckle, Robert A and John A Carlson (1995), “Price duration and two-sided pricing rules”, chapter 6 in KH Oppenländer and G Poser, Business Cycle Surveys “Forecasting Issues and Methodological Aspects”, Aldershot, Avebury, 99-118.

    Buti, M., Franco, D. and H. Ongena (1998), “Fiscal discipline and flexibility in EMU: the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Autumn, 81-97.

    Conway, Paul (1998), “Macroeconomic variability in New Zealand: an SVAR study,” New Zealand Economic Papers, 32, 161-186.

    Dalsgaard, Thomas and Alain de Serres (1999), “Estimating prudent budgetary margins for 11 EU countries: a simulated SVAR model approach,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 216.

    Dalziel, Paul and Ralph Lattimore (1999), The New Zealand Macroeconomy: A Briefing on the Reforms (3rd Edition), Greenlane, Oxford University Press, pp136.

    Engle, Robert F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987), “Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing,” Econometrica, 60, 251-276.

  • Metrics
Share - Bookmark