publication . Article . 1981

Predicting the Diffusion of Improved Pastures in Uruguay

Lovell S. Jarvis;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Jan 1981 Journal: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, volume 63, pages 495-502 (issn: 0002-9092, eissn: 1467-8276, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Wiley
Abstract
Research suggests the logistic curve is the characteristic diffusion path for new technologies. Econometric analysis of fertilized grass-legume pastures in Uruguay indicated that their diffusion during the first years following introduction also followed a logistic path. Some departure from a simple logistic shape was explained by including beef and fertilizer prices within the diffusion framework. Both the rate and limit of diffusion were positively related to changes in the technology's profitability, but the estimated price elasticity of each was low. Extrapolation predicted that a ceiling equal to 12% of Uruguayan pasture area would be reached in 1980.
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free text keywords: Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous), Economics and Econometrics, Pasture, geography.geographical_feature_category, geography, Mathematics, Logistic function, Econometric analysis, Profitability index, Economy, Price elasticity of demand, Ceiling (aeronautics), Econometrics, Extrapolation
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