publication . Preprint . 2005

The Challenge of Forecasting Metropolitan Growth: Urban Characteristics Based Models versus Regional Dummy Based Models

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Open Access
  • Published: 01 Dec 2005
Abstract
This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are for 321 MSAs as they were defined in 1990. Actual year 2000 populations for these MSAs are constructed using the MSA components lists for 1990. Forecast errors are constructe...

Leichenko, Robin, 2001, “Growth and Change in U. S. Cities and Suburbs,” Growth and Change, 32, No. 3, 326-354

Mills, Edwin S. and Lubuele, Luan' Sende, 1995, “Projecting Growth of Metropolitan Areas,” Journal of Urban Economics, 37, 344-60

Office of Management and Budget, 1990, Metropolitan Areas and Components, 1990, with FIPS Codes, http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/metro-city/90mfips.txt

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