publication . Preprint . 2004

A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 May 2004
The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing three aspects of a GCM's ability to reconstruct the historical record for global surface temperature: (1) how well the GCMs track observed temperature; (2) are the residuals fro...
free text keywords: jel:Q54, jel:C52

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