publication . Preprint . 2004

A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 May 2004
Abstract
The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing three aspects of a GCM's ability to reconstruct the historical record for global surface temperature: (1) how well the GCMs track observed temperature; (2) are the residuals fro...
Subjects
free text keywords: jel:Q54, jel:C52

Akaike, H, 1973. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle, in B. N. Petrov and F. Csaki (eds.) 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory, Akademini Kiado, Budapest, 267-281.

Allen, M.R., P.A. Stott, J.F.B. Mitchell, R. Schnur, and T.L. Delworth, 2000. Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change, Nature, 407, 617-620.

Box G. and D. Pierce, 1970. Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive integrated moving average time series models, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 65, 1509-1526. [OpenAIRE]

Craig, S. K. Holmen, and A. Bjorkstrom, 1997. Net terrestrial carbon exchange from mass balance calculations: an uncertainty estimate. Tellus, 49B136-148. [OpenAIRE]

Nicholls, N. et al. 1996. Observed climate variability and change. in Climate Change 1995: The

Powered by OpenAIRE Open Research Graph
Any information missing or wrong?Report an Issue