publication . Preprint . 2009

How fast is population ageing in China?

Yinhua mai; Xiujian Peng; Wei Chen;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Nov 2009
Abstract
Using adjusted 2000 population census data, this paper conducts China's population projections to 2050. Three fertility and four mortality scenarios yield 12 sets of results. Despite the below-replacement fertility, China's population will continue growing for many years. However, there are substantial differences among the twelve scenarios. The maximum population could range from less than 1.4 billion to more than 1.6 billion. One of the notable trends is the rapid population ageing. By the end of 2050 more than one-fifth to one-third of China's population would be aged 65 and over. Demographic dividend is expected to continue in next 10 to 20 years depending o...
Subjects
free text keywords: Cohort-component, Brass logit transformation, Population projection, Population ageing, China, jel:J11

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