publication . Preprint . 2009

How fast is population ageing in China?

Yinhua mai; Xiujian Peng; Wei Chen;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Nov 2009
Using adjusted 2000 population census data, this paper conducts China's population projections to 2050. Three fertility and four mortality scenarios yield 12 sets of results. Despite the below-replacement fertility, China's population will continue growing for many years. However, there are substantial differences among the twelve scenarios. The maximum population could range from less than 1.4 billion to more than 1.6 billion. One of the notable trends is the rapid population ageing. By the end of 2050 more than one-fifth to one-third of China's population would be aged 65 and over. Demographic dividend is expected to continue in next 10 to 20 years depending o...
free text keywords: Cohort-component, Brass logit transformation, Population projection, Population ageing, China, jel:J11

Bloom, D. and J. Williamson (1998), Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review 12(3): 419-456.

Brass, William and Ansley J. Coale (1968), Chapter 3 Methods of Analysis and Estimation. In W. Brass and others. The Demography of Tropical Africa. Princeton University Press. [OpenAIRE]

Brass, William (1971), On the scale of mortality. In W. Brass (ed.). Biological Aspects of Demography. London: Taylor and Francis.

Chen, W. and J. J. Liu (2009), Future Population Trend in China: 2005-2050. Working paper No. G191, Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.

Coale, A. J. and P. Demeny (1966), Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. Princeton University Press.

Guo, Zhigang, Erli Zhang, Baochang Gu and Feng Wang (2003), Policy Fertility and Diversity of Fertility Policies in China. Population Research (in Chinese) 5: 1-5.

Guo, Zhigang (2004), Research and Discussion on China's Fertility Level in the 1990s. Population Research 28(2):10-19

Ma, Y. T. (2005), Too Low Fertility Is Unbelievable. Market and Demographic Analysis 11(6):27-28.

Zhai, Zh. W. and W. Chen (2007), Chinese Fertility in the 1990s. Population Research 31(1):19-32.

Zhang, W. M. and H. Y. Cui (2003), Estimation of Accuracy of the 2000 Population Census. Population Research 27(4):25-35

Powered by OpenAIRE Research Graph
Any information missing or wrong?Report an Issue