publication . Doctoral thesis . 2006

Essays on microeconomics and statistical decision making

Nieto Barthaburu, Augusto;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Jan 2006
  • Publisher: eScholarship, University of California
  • Country: United States
Chapter I of this dissertation addresses the problem of optimally forecasting a binary variable based on a vector of covariates in the context of two different decision making environments. First we consider a single decision maker with given preferences, who has to choose between two actions on the basis of an unobserved binary outcome. Previous research has shown that traditional prediction methods, such as a logit regression estimated by maximum likelihood and combined with a cutoff, may produce suboptimal decisions in this context. We point out, however, that often a prediction is made to assist in the decisions of a whole population of individuals with hete...
free text keywords: Econometric models Decision making, Decision making Econometric models Loan officers, Econometric models Consumer behavior, Externalities (Economics), Regression analysis
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