publication . Other literature type . Article . 2018

NEXT GEOMAGNETIC REVERSAL

Bruce Buffett; William Davis;
  • Published: 28 Feb 2018
  • Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • Country: Mexico
Abstract
Author(s): Buffett, Bruce; Davis, William | Abstract: ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Deterministic forecasts for the next geomagnetic reversal are not feasible due to large uncertainties in the present-day state of the Earth's core. A more practical approach relies on probabilistic assessments using paleomagnetic observations to characterize the amplitude of fluctuations in the geomagnetic dipole. We use paleomagnetic observations for the past 2 Myr to construct a stochastic model for the axial dipole field and apply well-established methods to evaluate the probability of the next geomagnetic reversal as a function of time. For a present...
Subjects
arXiv: Physics::Geophysics
free text keywords: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics, Paleomagnetism, Magnetic dipole, Geology, Probabilistic logic, Geomagnetic reversal, Amplitude, Stochastic modelling, Dipole, Earth's magnetic field
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