publication . Article . 2017

Mass coral mortality under local amplification of 2 °C ocean warming

Thomas M. DeCarlo; Anne L. Cohen; George T. F. Wong; Kristen A. Davis; Pat Lohmann; Keryea Soong;
  • Published: 23 Mar 2017
  • Publisher: Springer Nature
  • Country: United States
Abstract
A 2 °C increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is considered a reasonable target for avoiding the most devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change. In June 2015, sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea (SCS) increased by 2 °C in response to the developing Pacific El Niño. On its own, this moderate, short-lived warming was unlikely to cause widespread damage to coral reefs in the region, and the coral reef “Bleaching Alert” alarm was not raised. However, on Dongsha Atoll, in the northern SCS, unusually weak winds created low-flow conditions that amplified the 2 °C basin-scale anomaly. Water temperatures on the reef flat, no...
Subjects
free text keywords: Multidisciplinary, Sea surface temperature, Effects of global warming on oceans, Global warming, Oceanography, Acropora, biology.organism_classification, biology, Reef, geography.geographical_feature_category, geography, Environmental science, Coral bleaching, Coral reef, Atoll, Ecology, Article
58 references, page 1 of 4

UNFCCC. Adoption of The Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/201 5/L.9/Rev.1 (2015).

Victor D. G. & Kennel C. F. Climate policy: Ditch the 2 C warming goal. Nature 514, 30–31 (2014).25279903 [PubMed]

Tschakert P.1.5 °C or 2 °C: a conduit’s view from the science-policy interface at COP20 in Lima, Peru. Clim. Chang. Responses 2, 11 (2015). [OpenAIRE]

Hoegh-Guldberg O.. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318, 1737–1742 (2007).18079392 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

Pandolfi J. M., Connolly S. R., Marshall D. J. & Cohen A. L. Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification. Science 333, 418–422 (2011).21778392 [PubMed]

Costanza R.. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Glob. Environ. Chang. 26, 152–158 (2014).

Baker A. C., Glynn P. W. & Riegl B. Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 80, 435–471 (2008).

Glynn P. W.Coral reef bleaching: ecological perspectives. Coral Reefs 12, 1–17 (1993). [OpenAIRE]

Wilkinson C.Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre. (2008).

Frieler K.. Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 165–170 (2012). [OpenAIRE]

van Hooidonk R., Maynard J. A. & Planes S. Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 508–511 (2013).

Palumbi S. R., Barshis D. J., Traylor-Knowles N. & Bay R. A. Mechanisms of Reef Coral Resistance to Future Climate Change. Science 344, 895–898 (2014).24762535 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

Brown B. E.& Suharsono. Damage and recovery of coral reefs affected by El Niño related seawater warming in the Thousand Islands, Indonesia. Coral Reefs 8, 163–170 (1990). [OpenAIRE]

Jokiel P. L. & Brown E. K. Global warming, regional trends and inshore environmental conditions influence coral bleaching in Hawaii. Glob. Chang. Biol. 10, 1627–1641 (2004). [OpenAIRE]

Oliver T. A. & Palumbi S. R. Do fluctuating temperature environments elevate coral thermal tolerance? Coral Reefs 30, 429–440 (2011). [OpenAIRE]

58 references, page 1 of 4
Abstract
A 2 °C increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is considered a reasonable target for avoiding the most devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change. In June 2015, sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea (SCS) increased by 2 °C in response to the developing Pacific El Niño. On its own, this moderate, short-lived warming was unlikely to cause widespread damage to coral reefs in the region, and the coral reef “Bleaching Alert” alarm was not raised. However, on Dongsha Atoll, in the northern SCS, unusually weak winds created low-flow conditions that amplified the 2 °C basin-scale anomaly. Water temperatures on the reef flat, no...
Subjects
free text keywords: Multidisciplinary, Sea surface temperature, Effects of global warming on oceans, Global warming, Oceanography, Acropora, biology.organism_classification, biology, Reef, geography.geographical_feature_category, geography, Environmental science, Coral bleaching, Coral reef, Atoll, Ecology, Article
58 references, page 1 of 4

UNFCCC. Adoption of The Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/201 5/L.9/Rev.1 (2015).

Victor D. G. & Kennel C. F. Climate policy: Ditch the 2 C warming goal. Nature 514, 30–31 (2014).25279903 [PubMed]

Tschakert P.1.5 °C or 2 °C: a conduit’s view from the science-policy interface at COP20 in Lima, Peru. Clim. Chang. Responses 2, 11 (2015). [OpenAIRE]

Hoegh-Guldberg O.. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318, 1737–1742 (2007).18079392 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

Pandolfi J. M., Connolly S. R., Marshall D. J. & Cohen A. L. Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification. Science 333, 418–422 (2011).21778392 [PubMed]

Costanza R.. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Glob. Environ. Chang. 26, 152–158 (2014).

Baker A. C., Glynn P. W. & Riegl B. Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 80, 435–471 (2008).

Glynn P. W.Coral reef bleaching: ecological perspectives. Coral Reefs 12, 1–17 (1993). [OpenAIRE]

Wilkinson C.Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre. (2008).

Frieler K.. Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 165–170 (2012). [OpenAIRE]

van Hooidonk R., Maynard J. A. & Planes S. Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 508–511 (2013).

Palumbi S. R., Barshis D. J., Traylor-Knowles N. & Bay R. A. Mechanisms of Reef Coral Resistance to Future Climate Change. Science 344, 895–898 (2014).24762535 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

Brown B. E.& Suharsono. Damage and recovery of coral reefs affected by El Niño related seawater warming in the Thousand Islands, Indonesia. Coral Reefs 8, 163–170 (1990). [OpenAIRE]

Jokiel P. L. & Brown E. K. Global warming, regional trends and inshore environmental conditions influence coral bleaching in Hawaii. Glob. Chang. Biol. 10, 1627–1641 (2004). [OpenAIRE]

Oliver T. A. & Palumbi S. R. Do fluctuating temperature environments elevate coral thermal tolerance? Coral Reefs 30, 429–440 (2011). [OpenAIRE]

58 references, page 1 of 4
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publication . Article . 2017

Mass coral mortality under local amplification of 2 °C ocean warming

Thomas M. DeCarlo; Anne L. Cohen; George T. F. Wong; Kristen A. Davis; Pat Lohmann; Keryea Soong;