publication . Article . 2005

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest virus disease in the Gladstone region, Australia.

Suchithra Naish; Wenbiao Hu; Neville Nicholls; John Sheppard Mackenzie; Mcmichael, Anthony J.; Pat Dale; Shilu Tong;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Dec 2005 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives, volume 114, issue 5, pages 678-683 (issn: 0091-6765, eissn: 1552-9924, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Abstract
In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, ...
Subjects
free text keywords: Research, Barmah Forest virus, control, forecasting, Gladstone region, risk factors, time series modeling, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, Maximum temperature, Population size, Precipitation, Toxicology, High tide, Climatology, biology.organism_classification, biology, Ross River virus
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