publication . Doctoral thesis . 2005

Indicators for traffic safety assessment and prediction and their application in micro-simulation modelling : a study of urban and suburban intersections

Archer, Jeffery;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Jan 2005
  • Publisher: KTH, Trafik och Logistik
  • Country: Sweden
Abstract
In order to achieve sustainable long-term transport infrastructure development, there is a growing need for fast, reliable and effective methods to evaluate and predict the impact of traffic safety measures. Recognising this need, and the need for an active traffic safety approach, this thesis focuses on traffic safety assessment and prediction based on the use of safety indicators that measure the spatial and/or temporal proximity of safety critical events. The main advantage of such measures is that they occur more frequently than accidents, and therefore require relatively short periods of study to establish values that can later be used for comparison, or fo...
Subjects
free text keywords: Social sciences, Traffic safety, proximal safety indicators, micro-simulation, safety analysis, Samhällsvetenskap
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1. General introduction .....................................................................................................3

2.1 Traffic safety statistics for Sweden ..........................................................................................................13 2.1.1 General accident and exposure data.........................................................................................13 2.1.2 Accident types and road-user risk levels..................................................................................14 2.1.3 Accidents in urban areas vs. rural areas and motorways.......................................................15 2.1.4 Accidents at intersections...........................................................................................................17

2.2 Safety data collection and analysis ...........................................................................................................18 2.2.1 Accident and exposure data sources in Sweden .....................................................................18 2.2.2 Accident data quality and the problem of underreporting ...................................................19

2.3 Accident data and the dimensions of traffic safety ...............................................................................21

4. Traffic safety and predictive modelling......................................................................35

4.1 Predicting safety impact: SRA “effect-relationship” models...............................................................35

4.2 Predictive safety modelling approaches ..................................................................................................36

4.3 Accident prediction based on 'near-accidents' ...........................................................................................39

5. Proximal safety indicator concepts and measurement techniques.......................... 41

6. The traffic conflict technique as a method for assessing and predicting safety at signalised intersections on a major city street ...........................................67

8. The potential and limitations of micro-simulation modelling as an methodological approach to safety assessment and prediction..............................121

8.1 General background................................................................................................................................ 121

8.2 Simulation modelling and traffic safety................................................................................................ 123 8.2.1 Micro-simulation software programs .................................................................................... 125 8.2.2 Safety-related parameters and processes in micro-simulation software .......................... 126 8.2.3 Other variables with an identified safety influence............................................................. 131 8.2.4 Calibrating and validating simulation models for safety estimation................................. 133

8.3 Summary: Simulation modelling and safety assessment.................................................................... 135

9. Estimating levels of safety at a suburban T-junction using dynamic microsimulation modelling .............................................................................................. 137

151 references, page 1 of 11
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