publication . Research . Article . Book . Other literature type . 2003

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

Sanderson, W. C.; Sergey Scherbov; O Neill, B. C.; Lutz, W.;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Oct 2003
  • Publisher: Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) Vienna
  • Country: Austria
Abstract
Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them to answer 'what if' type questions properly when outcomes are uncertain. The second is a new category that we call 'future jump-off date forecasts'. Future jump-off date fo...
Subjects
free text keywords: ddc:300, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, Statistics and Probability, Forecasting, Population forecasting, Probabilistic forecasting, Scenarios, Scenario analysis
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Research . 2003
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Other literature type . 2004
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Book . 2003
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