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Методические подходы к повышению точности оценки экспозиции населения на основе сопряжения расчетных и натурных данных о качестве атмосферного воздуха

Методические подходы к повышению точности оценки экспозиции населения на основе сопряжения расчетных и натурных данных о качестве атмосферного воздуха

Abstract

Для корректной оценки ингаляционной экспозиции населения предложен и апробирован метод сопряжения результатов инструментальных измерений примесей и расчетов рассеивания загрязняющих веществ от выбросов стационарных и передвижных источников. Метод основан на установлении коэффициентов соответствия между расчетными концентрациями и натурными измерениями примесей в конкретных точках (к примеру, в точках постов мониторинга) и решении с использованием полученных коэффициентов задачи аппроксимации пространственных данных. Для этого выполняется решение системы линейных алгебраических уравнений для точек внутри треугольников, образованных на заданной территории методом триангуляции Делоне. Апробация и верификация метода на примере крупного промышленного центра свидетельствует о повышении в 1,5–4 раза точности прогнозирования приземных концентраций в сравнении с применением метода аппроксимации данных постов наблюдения с помощью обратных расстояний или расчетов рассевания. Метод обеспечивает более корректное зонирование территории и определение численности населения, находящегося в условиях кратковременного и/или длительного (хронического) воздействия.

To make the assessment of human inhalation exposure more accurate, the study proposed and validated a method for the conjugation of data obtained by the monitoring of air pollutants and the calculations of the dispersion of emissions from stationary and mobile sources. The method is based on the determination of the concordance coefficients between the simulation and monitoring of pollutants at certain points (for example in air monitoring stations) and on the solution using the concordance coefficients of a system of linear algebraic equations for points inside triangles produced by Delaunay traingulation in a given area. The validation and verification of the method in a large industrial center case study suggests a 1.5 to 4 enhancement of the accuracy of forecasting ground level concentrations in comparison with the approximation of the data obtained from monitoring stations by the inverse distance method or dispersion calculations. The method provides a more correct zoning and the determination of the number of individuals residing in an area of short-term and / or long-term (chronic) exposure.

Keywords

АТМОСФЕРНЫЙ ВОЗДУХ, ОЦЕНКА ЭКСПОЗИЦИИ, РАСЧЕТ РАССЕИВАНИЯ, ИНСТРУМЕНТАЛЬНЫЕ ИЗМЕРЕНИЯ, ТОЧНОСТЬ ПРОГНОЗА

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold