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Сценарии макроэкономического развития и денежно-кредитная политика центрального Банка России

Сценарии макроэкономического развития и денежно-кредитная политика центрального Банка России

Abstract

Background. The paper formulates a problem of specificity of monetary policies of the Bank of Russia as a mega-regulator in creating a comfortable environment for businesses and organizations of all sectors of the economy. In structuring and analysis of principles of the financial policy of Russia in whole in an unstable geopolitical situation the most important element is discussing of scenarios of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. Materials and methods. In the research the authors applied a normative analysis, which made it possible, on the basis of arguments by researchers-experts on the issue and normative-legal and analytical documentation of the bank of Russia, to identify the most promising propositions of advisory nature concerning the monetary strategy, and to comment on them. Conclusions. Unsustainable development of the Russian economy raises questions about effectiveness of monetary policy implementation by the governmental bodies of regulation and supervision. In this context, assessment of a role of the Bank of Russia as a mega-regulator of the financial system becomes relevant, as well as searching for directions to enhance the role of the Central Bank in sustainable development of the financial and credit system. Measures to increase the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of Russia, reduction of export duties on raw materials do not provide development of industrial and agricultural production, and continue to contribute to reduction of the share of production for expansion of fuel and commodity exports. Such measures are in conflict with the policy of import substitution and with an opportunity to create a new basis for the economy.

Актуальность и цели. В статье сформулирована проблема специфики денежно-кредитной стратегии Банка России как мегарегулятора в создании комфортной среды для предприятий и организаций всех отраслей экономики. В структурировании и анализе принципов в целом финансовой политики России в условиях нестабильной геополитической ситуации важнейшим элементом выступает дискутирование сценариев денежно-кредитной стратегии Банка России. Материалы и методы. В работе применен нормативный анализ, который дал возможность на основе аргументов исследователей-специалистов по проблеме и нормативно-правовой и аналитической документации Банка России выделить наиболее перспективные суждения рекомендательного характера относительно денежно-кредитной стратегии, прокомментировать их. Выводы. Неустойчивое развитие российской экономики порождает вопросы об эффективности реализации денежно-кредитной политики органами государственного регулирования и надзора. В этой связи актуальным становится оценка роли Банка России как мегарегулятора финансовой системы и поиск направлений по повышению роли ЦБ РФ в устойчивом развитии финансово-кредитной системы. Меры повышения ставки рефинансирования Центробанка России, снижение экспортных пошлин на сырьевые ресурсы не обеспечивают развития промышленного и сельскохозяйственного производства, а по-прежнему способствуют сокращению доли производства относительно расширения топливно-сырьевого экспорта. Такие меры входят в противоречие с курсом на импортозамещение и на использование возможности создать новую основу экономики.

Keywords

БАНК РОССИИ,ДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА,МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ,BANK OF RUSSIA,MONETARY POLICY,MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

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    popularity
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    influence
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold