Estimating NHL Scoring Rates
Buttrey, Samuel E.
Washburn, Alan R.
Price, Wilson L.
- Publisher: Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School.
Poisson process | hockey | GLM
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1334
We propose a model to estimate the rates at which NHL teams score and yield goals. In the
model, goals occur as if from a Poisson process whose rate depends on the two teams playing, the
home-ice advantage, and the manpower (power-play, short-handed) situation. Data on all the
games from the 2008-2009 season was downloaded and processed into a form suitable for the
analysis. The model seems to perform adequately in prediction and should be useful for
handicapping and for informing the decision as to when to pull the goalie.