publication . Preprint . 2020

Retrospective short-term forecasting experiment in Italy based on the occurrence of strong (fore) shocks

Gasperini, Paolo; Biondini, Emanuele; Lolli, Barbara; Petruccelli, Antonio; Vannucci, Gianfranco;
Open Access
  • Published: 10 Dec 2020
Abstract
In a recent work we computed the relative frequencies with which strong shocks (4.0≤Mw<5.0), widely felt by the population were followed in the same area by potentially destructive main shocks (Mw≥5.0) in Italy. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies can be tentatively used to estimate the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. This allows us to set up an alarm-based forecasting hypothesis related to strong foreshocks occurrence. Such hypothesis is tested retrospectively on the data of a homogenized seismic catalogue of the Italian area against a purely random hypothesi...
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Preprint . 2020
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