Discovery of Complex Anomalous Patterns of Sexual Violence in El Salvador

Conference object, Preprint English OPEN
De-Arteaga, Maria ; Dubrawski, Artur (2017)

When sexual violence is a product of organized crime or social imaginary, the links between sexual violence episodes can be understood as a latent structure. With this assumption in place, we can use data science to uncover complex patterns. In this paper we focus on the use of data mining techniques to unveil complex anomalous spatio-temporal patterns of sexual violence. We illustrate their use by analyzing all reported rapes in El Salvador over a period of nine years. Through our analysis, we are able to provide evidence of phenomena that,to the best of our knowledge,have not been previously reported in literature. We devote special attention to a pattern we discover in the East, where underage victims report their boyfriends as perpetrators at anomalously high rates. Finally, we explain how such analyzes could be conducted in real-time, enabling early detection of emerging patterns to allow law enforcement agencies and policy makers to react accordingly.
  • References (8)

    [Arana, 2005] Arana, A. (2005). How the street gangs took central america. Foreign Affairs, 84(3):98-110.

    [Berk et al., 2005] Berk, R. A., He, Y., and Sorenson, S. B. (2005). Developing a practical forecasting screener for domestic violence incidents. Evaluation Review, 29(4):358-383.

    [Dubrawski, 2010] Dubrawski, A. (2010). The role of data aggregation in public health and food safety surveillance. Biosurveillance: Methods and Case Studies, page 161.

    [Gorr and Harries, 2003] Gorr, W. and Harries, R. (2003). Introduction to crime forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 19(4):551-555.

    [Hume, 2004] Hume, M. (2004). “it's as if you don't know, because you don't do anything about it”: gender and violence in el salvador. Environment and Urbanization, 16(2):63-72.

    [Hume, 2007] Hume, M. (2007). Mano dura: El salvador responds to gangs. Development in Practice, 17(6):739- [Wood, 2006] Wood, E. J. (2006). Variation in sexual vio751. lence during war. Politics & Society, 34(3):307-342.

    [Jütersonke et al., 2009] Jütersonke, O., Muggah, R., and [Wood, 2009] Wood, E. J. (2009). Armed groups and sexual Rodgers, D. (2009). Gangs, urban violence, and secu- violence: when is wartime rape rare? Politics & Society, rity interventions in central america. Security Dialogue, 37(1):131-161. 40(4-5):373-397.

    [Muggah, 2016] Muggah, R. (2016). It's official: San salvador is the murder capital of the world. LA Times.

  • Metrics
    No metrics available
Share - Bookmark