publication . Article . 2005

A possible declining trend for worldwide innovation

Huebner, Jonathan;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Oct 2005 Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, volume 72, pages 980-986 (issn: 0040-1625, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Elsevier BV
Abstract
A comparison is made between a model of technology in which the level of technology advances exponentially without limit and a model with an economic limit. The model with an economic limit best fits data obtained from lists of events in the history of science and technology as well as the patent history in the United States. The rate of innovation peaked in the year 1873 and is now rapidly declining. We are at an estimated 85% of the economic limit of technology, and it is projected that we will reach 90% in 2018 and 95% in 2038.
Subjects
free text keywords: Management of Technology and Innovation, Applied Psychology, Business and International Management
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